# 15 Ways to Predict Divorce



## Darla (May 21, 2010)

a topic of interest recently.

*15 Ways to Predict Divorce*

by Anneli Rufus

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Anneli Rufus is the author of many books, including _Party of One: The Loners' Manifesto_ and the Nautilus Award-winning _Stuck: Why We Don't (or Won't) Move On_, and the coauthor of still more, including _Weird Europe_ and _The Scavengers' Manifesto_. Her books have been translated into numerous languages, including Chinese and Latvian. In 2006, she won a Society of Professional Journalists award for criticism.

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*How long will your marriage last? Depends on if you smoke, which church you go to, and which state you live in. Anneli Rufus on the shocking statistics.* You can't guarantee the longevity of a marriage, but what you _can_ do is play the odds. Researchers have studied marriage success rates from nearly every conceivable angle, and what they've found is that everything from smoking habits to what state you live in can predict how likely it is that your union will survive. Here are 15 ways to gauge whether your marriage is for the long haulâ€”or on the fast track to Splitsville.

*1. If you're a married American, your marriage is between 40 and 50 percent likely to end in divorce.*

After peaking at 50 percent in the 1980s, the national divorce rate has dropped steadily, but in the public's mind, that outdated "half of all marriages" figure still sticksâ€”and scares. "Inflated divorce statistics create an ambivalence about marriage," says Tara Parker-Pope, author of _For Better: The Science of a Good Marriage_. "The bottom line is that modern marriages are getting more and more resilient. With each generation, we're getting a little better about picking mates. A different kind of marriage is emerging in this century."

(Source: David Popenoe, "The Future of Marriage in America," University of Virginia/National Marriage Project/The State of Our Unions, 2007)

â€¢ A Decade of Divorces

â€¢ Joyce C. Tang: Is the Pill Killing Your Sex Drive?

*2. If you live in a red state, you're 27 percent more likely to get divorced than if you live in a blue state.*

Maybe that's because red-state couples traditionally marry youngerâ€”and the younger the partners, the riskier the marriage. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the states with the lowest median age at marriage are Utah, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma.

(Source: National Vital Statistics Report, 2003; cited in _The Compassionate Community: Ten Values to Unite America_, by Jonathan Miller and Al Gore)

*3. If you argue with your spouse about finances once a week, your marriage is 30 percent more likely to end in divorce than if you argue with your spouse about finances less frequently.*

Money woes kill marriages. The same study also found that couples with no assets at the beginning of a three-year period are 70 percent more likely to divorce by the end of that period than couples with $10,000 in assets. Most divorce risk factorsâ€”such as age and education levelâ€”correlate with poverty, says _Statistics in Plain English_ author Timothy Urdan. "Whenever you see an explanation for anything, try to figure out what the explanations are for those explanations."

(Source: Jeffrey Dew, "Bank on It: Thrifty Couples Are the Happiest," University of Virginia/National Marriage Project/The State of Our Unions, 2009)

*4. If your parents were divorced, you're at least 40 percent more likely to get divorced than if they weren't. If your parents married others after divorcing, you're 91 percent more likely to get divorced.*

This could be because witnessing our parents' divorces reinforces our ambivalence about commitment in a "disposable society," says Divorce Magazine publisher Dan Couvrette. "In most people's minds, it's easier to get a new car than fix the one you've got."

(Source: Nicholas Wolfinger, _Understanding the Divorce Cycle_, Cambridge University Press, 2005)

*5. If only one partner in your marriage is a smoker, you're 75 percent to 91 percent more likely to divorce than smokers who are married to fellow smokers.*

"The more similar people are in their values, backgrounds, and life goals, the more likely they are to have a successful marriage," notes Tara Parker-Pope. From age to ethnicity to unhealthy habits, dissimilarities between spouses increase divorce risks.

(Source: Rebecca Kippen, Bruce Chapman and Peng Yu, "What's Love Got to Do With It? Homogamy and Dyadic Approaches to Understanding Marital Instability," Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2009)

*6. If you have a daughter, you're nearly 5 percent more likely to divorce than if you have a son.*

This figure multiplies with the numbers of daughters or sons. "We think it happens because fathers get more invested in family life when they have boys," says Stephanie Coontz, author of _Marriage, a History_ and director of research for the Council on Contemporary Families.

(Source: Gordon Dahl and Enrico Moretti, "The Demand for Sons," published in the _Review of Economic Studies_, 2005)

*7. If you're an evangelical Christian adult who has been married, there's a 26 percent likelihood that you've been divorcedâ€”compared to a 28 percent chance for Catholics and a 38 percent chance for non-Christians.*

That's according to the evangelically affiliated Barna Research Group, whose long-term clients include the Disney Channel. The same study cited a 30 percent divorce rate for atheists.

(Source: The Barna Group, "Divorce Among Adults Who Have Been Married," 2008)

The Barna Group - New Marriage and Divorce Statistics Released

*8. If you live in Wayne County, Indiana, and are over 15 years old, there's a 19.2 percent chance that you've been divorced.*

This mostly rural county hugging the Ohio border, renowned in the 1920s as a KKK stronghold, leads the nation in percentage of divorced residents. Florida's Monroe County, which includes the Keys, holds second place at 18 percent.

(Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 estimates)

*9. If both you and your partner have had previous marriages, you're 90 percent more likely to get divorced than if this had been the first marriage for both of you.*

"A lot of data shows that second marriages _should_ be more successful than first marriages," says Tara Parker-Pope. But this statistic is skewed by serial marriers, "and no one has yet found a way to take the Larry Kings and Elizabeth Taylors out of the equation."

(Source: Rebecca Kippen, Bruce Chapman and Peng Yu, "What's Love Got to Do With It? Homogamy and Dyadic Approaches to Understanding Marital Instability," Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2009)

*10. If you're a woman two or more years older than your husband, your marriage is 53 percent more likely to end in divorce than if he was one year younger to three years older.*

Wide age gaps between spouses can create sexual discord and other disagreements. "Our culture is so focused on personal satisfaction and happiness that some people feel this is a contributing factor in divorce," says lawyer Emily Doskow, author of _Nolo's Essential Guide to Divorce_. "Each partner keeps saying, 'I know I could be happier.'"

(Source: Rebecca Kippen, Bruce Chapman and Peng Yu, "What's Love Got to Do With It? Homogamy and Dyadic Approaches to Understanding Marital Instability," Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2009)

*11. If you're of "below average" intelligence, you're 50 percent more likely to be divorced than those of "above average" intelligence.*

Presented by University of Delaware education professor Linda Gottfredson, codirector of the Delaware-Johns Hopkins Project for the Study of Intelligence and Society, this figure joins assertions in Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray's controversial 1994 bestseller _The Bell Curve _that those with IQs of 100 face a 28 percent probability of divorce in the first five years of marriage, compared to just a 9 percent probability for those with IQs of 130.

(Source: Linda S. Gottfredson, "The General Intelligence Factor," _Scientific American_, Winter 1998, and Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles A. Murray, _The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life_, Simon &amp; Schuster, 1994, page 176)

*12. If you've been diagnosed with cervical cancer, your likelihood of getting divorced is 40 percent higher than standard rates; it's 20 percent higher if you've been diagnosed with testicular cancer.*

Norwegian Cancer Registry researcher Astri Syse suspects that this is because these two cancers affect sexual activity _and_ afflict mainly young people. Syse also found that breast-cancer survivors, an older group, are 8 percent less likely to divorce than their counterparts who have not had breast cancer.

(Source: Astri Syse, "Couples More Likely to Divorce if Spouse Develops Cervical or Testicular Cancer," study presented at the European Cancer Conference, 2007)

*13. If you have twins or triplets, your marriage is 17 percent more likely to end in divorce than if your children are not multiple births.*

Multiple births bring money woes, which bring stress. "I always think of marriage as a bridge that connects two hills," says Brette Sember, author of _The Divorce Organizer &amp; Planner_. "The bridge might be solid and well-made, but if an earthquake causes one or both hills to shake, the bridge is weakened."

(Source: Stephen McKay, "The Effects of Twins and Multiple Births on Families and Their Living Standards," Twins and Multiple Births Association, 2010)

*14. If you're a female serial cohabiterâ€”a woman who has lived with more than one partner before your first marriageâ€”then you're 40 percent more likely to get divorced than women who have never done so.*

Although "playing house" seems like good practice for married life, it can also make living together seem less permanent. "People feel like, 'If it doesn't work out, we can just step out of this,'" says lawyer Emily Doskow. Statistics show that marriages preceded by cohabitation have better chances of success when couples became officially engaged before moving in together.

(Source: Daniel T. Lichter, Zhenchao Qian, "Serial Cohabitation: Implications for Marriage, Divorce, and Public Policy," Brown University Population and Training Center, 2007)

*15. If you're in a male same-sex marriage, it's 50 percent more likely to end in divorce than a heterosexual marriage. If you're in a female same-sex marriage, this figure soars to 167 percent.*

A research team led by Stockholm University demography professor Gunnar Anderson based their calculations on legal partnerships in Norway and Sweden, where five out of every 1,000 new couples are same-sex.

_(Source: Gunnar Andersson, "Divorce-Risk Patterns in Same-Sex Marriages in Norway and Sweden," Institute for Marriage and Public Policy, 2004)_

Want to assess your own marriage's chances of failure based on your personal demographics? Economist Betsey Stevenson created this "divorce calculator" for the Divorce360 website:

divorce360.com | Marriage Calculator


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## MakeupByMe (May 21, 2010)

lol Some of these are just bizzare i Dont believe this!!!!!!!!!! but its funny how they come up with these


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## AudreyNola (May 21, 2010)

What no mention of facebook? haha.

Very interesting... some of those statistics are on our side and some aren't!


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## Dragonfly (May 21, 2010)

*1. If you're a married American, your marriage is between 40 and 50% likely to end in divorce. After peaking at 50% in the 1980s, the national divorce rate has dropped steadily, but in the public's mind, that outdated "half of all marriages" figure still sticks—and scares."*

The reason the numbers are declining is that many people are content to live with their partner and never marry. So if a common law couple split up, its not taken into consideration. Therefore it just looks like the divorce rate is declining.

Ask anyone in a common law relationship - they consider themselves just as much a commited couple as a married couple does.


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## Karren (May 21, 2010)

16... If your husband has nicer lingerie.. More dresses and more heels... 99.99% more likely..

Hate to be an older American female smoker living in a red state with triplet daughters and have a crossdressing husband!!


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## Ingrid (May 22, 2010)

That is just not accurate at all.


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## Darla (May 22, 2010)

Originally Posted by *Ingrid* /img/forum/go_quote.gif That is just not accurate at all. i dunno, some of it i think is very accurate


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## Ingrid (May 22, 2010)

I believe that in order to correctly predict a person's marriage, you have to look at both parties' personality and attitude. Rather than their surrounding and influence. The problem with people these days is that they blame it way too much on the environment and not looking within themselves. Of course your surrounding will have a little influence to your lifestyle, but if you want to overcome the problems, you have to face the situation with the correct attitude and most importantly, the personality.


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## internetchick (May 22, 2010)

I hate lists like these. As if there is some perfect formula for a long marriage. You can have all the "right" things and divorce, and all the "wrong" things and stay together.

After almost fourteen years of marriage all I have to say is listen to yourself and your spouse. If anyone gives you advice, tell them to butt out lol. Wait, is that advice? LOL!





All the people I know who would tell me things like don't go to bed angry, don't yell when you fight, don't blah blah blah are all divorced. You know what? Maybe going to bed mad works for _US_. Maybe we can fight and have makeup sex afterward. And maybe we _LIKE_ that.

Off my soap box now lol.


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## Mizzyme (May 23, 2010)

Originally Posted by *Karren* /img/forum/go_quote.gif 16... If your husband has nicer lingerie.. More dresses and more heels... 99.99% more likely.. 
Hate to be an older American female smoker living in a red state with triplet daughters and have a crossdressing husband!!

LOL LOL LOL! This is too funny!


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## Bec688 (May 23, 2010)

This entire article has rubbed me up the wrong way.... especially number 4.


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