I totally think it can make a difference in dating, it's one of those subtle (hopefully) things that make a big difference in the impression people get of you. Plus feeling bold or sexy, or whatever a new scent influences you to feel, makes a subtle difference in the choices you make, thus a slightly different outcome.
However I think recent history makes a bigger difference. For instance having just come out of a hard break-up, and feeling extra cautious will influence choices dramatically differently than having just come out of a long dry spell, and having high hopes for a healthy romance.
Bottom line, while I LOVE fragrance, it really comes down to inner self and where a person is at and what their potential partner is going through at the same time, not to mention natural chemistry and compatibility.